A Tale of Two Bay Area Markets
The Bay Area housing market is commanding national attention this summer. New AI-driven wealth is fueling extraordinary demand at the upper end, while elevated mortgage rates and job uncertainty continue to challenge more rate-sensitive buyers.
The contrast is striking. In San Francisco, 44 homes reportedly sold for at least $1 million over asking in June alone, while sales across San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties are running ahead of last year.
At the same time, parts of the South Bay are seeing rising inventory as the region absorbs significant tech-sector job cuts.
Against this mixed backdrop, the core Stanford Circle markets continue to show remarkable strength.
Stanford Circle Continues to Outperform
During the first half of 2026, median single-family home prices increased year over year in Atherton, Los Altos, Palo Alto, and Menlo Park.
Median Sale Price First Half of 2026 vs. First Half of 2025
Atherton $11,200,000 vs. $9,575,000 +17%
Los Altos $4,920,000 vs $4,838,125 +2%
Palo Alto $4,080,000 vs $3,860,000 +6%
Menlo Park $3,500,000 vs $3,300,000 +6%
Atherton led the market with a 17% increase in median sale price, while Palo Alto and Menlo Park each saw a 6% increase.
The Strongest Signal: Price per Square Foot
Even more telling, median price per square foot increased in every market—evidence of broad underlying appreciation rather than simply a change in the mix of homes sold.
Median Price per Square Foot
First Half of 2026 vs. First Half of 2025
Atherton $2,390 vs $2,161 +11%
Palo Alto $2,207 vs $2,065 +7%
Los Altos $2,063 vs $1,965 +5%
Menlo Park $1,768 vs $1,652 +7%
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
The first half of 2026 reinforces a familiar truth: the communities surrounding Stanford do not always move in lockstep with the broader market.
Limited inventory, exceptional schools, proximity to Stanford and leading technology companies, and the creation of new AI-driven wealth continue to support demand. Buyers remain selective, but well-located, well-presented and correctly priced homes are attracting the strongest interest.
The Bottom Line
The Bay Area is experiencing two very different markets: new wealth is lifting the top, while high rates and job uncertainty are creating pressure elsewhere. Through it all, Stanford Circle remains one of the region's strongest and most resilient housing markets.
